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Insights · Field notes

Reading the imbalance, before the price does.

Commodities · Artificial Intelligence · No. 014 Read more →

The risk factor today, the constraint tomorrow

The AI infrastructure cycle is being friced as a question of scale. More chips, more data centers, more power. That framing assumes that inputs expand linearly with capital — that if the demand is there, the supply will follow. It is the assumption that has governed technology cycles for decades.

Critical Minerals Habemus Investment Research 4/15/26 Critical Minerals Habemus Investment Research 4/15/26

When price stops working

The most dangerous assumption in commodity investing is that scarcity resolves through price.

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